Six Nations 2026 Betting Preview: Week 2 - 11/5 Treble
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How Did Last Week Go?
Last weekend was a belter for us — all three selections landed. Read last weeks preview HERE
England 48–7 Wales → Tip: England -15.5 ✅
Italy 18–15 Scotland → Tip: Italy +15.5 ✅
France 36–14 Ireland → Tip: France -9.5 ✅
That left us with a clean result sheet and a strong foundation for Week 2.
Week 2 Games
England vs Scotland
Ireland vs Italy
Wales vs France
How The Bookies Price Week 2 Up (bet365)
• England -8.5
• Ireland -17.5
• France -31.5
Note: These are not my picks - these are simply the handicaps set by bet365 to turn each game into a coin flip chance.
I’ve thought a lot about France vs Wales. I’m not at all keen on the -31.5 handicap in Cardiff. I looked more at France -20.5 and that line sits at the same price as Wales +42.5, and that dynamic deserves a closer look — more on that later. But first, the context for each selection.
England Vs Scotland — England To Win
England looked ruthless last week. A 48–7 demolition of Wales at Twickenham was clinical from start to finish, led by a strong kicking game and sharp finishing. George Ford was excellent and the backline looked cohesive from kick-off to whistle.
Scotland, by contrast, never turned up in Rome. Italy’s 18–15 win was underwhelming from a Scots perspective, and for a team that wants to challenge at the top, losing to Italy stings.
There’s some noise around Scotland’s camp — the scrum coach insists “all is not lost” and they can still use this as a launchpad — but the reality is they’re on the back foot after a tough opener and face a fired-up England who’ve already shown real cohesion.
Taking England simply to win removes the risk of a wide handicap and keeps this selection tight — Scotland can score (and historically tend to be more competitive against the Red Rose), but overall control here should sit with England.
Ireland Vs Italy — Ireland -17.5
Ireland’s opener was a frustrating night in Paris, beaten 36–14 by France with a first-half they’d rather forget. Former players and pundits were left scratching their heads at how flat they were early, and Andy Farrell himself was vocal after the game about a lack of intensity.
Now back in Dublin, they have motivation and home support on their side — and it’s not like Italy are a pushover. Italy edged Scotland in tough weather last week, fighting hard for a morale-boosting win.
Crucially, the historical head-to-head leans heavily towards Ireland when they’re at full strength:
• 2024: Ireland won 36–0
• 2022: Ireland won 57–6
That’s serious scoring power. You could certainly argue for a slightly bigger line — and Ireland -17.5 at 10/11 feels fair given how they’ve performed when focused. The “bounce-back” narrative here is strong.
Wales Vs France — Wales +42.5
This one is where we can tilt slightly contrarian without being reckless.
The market’s France handicap is sitting around -31.5, which is huge. Bookmakers clearly expect France to dominate again after their big win over Ireland. Fabien Galthié’s side looked slick and structured last week, executing their phases and controlling territory well.
But this line invites a deeper question:
Does a Six Nations side playing at home — even a struggling one — ever lose by 43+ points?
In the modern era, such blowouts are exceedingly rare. There are examples of big margins (England thrashed France by 43 once), but Wales losing by more than 43 points at home in the Six Nations does not happen often — if at all in the professional era.
That’s huge psychologically. If France get 25–30 points ahead, I expect them to close the game down, manage substitutions, and avoid injury risk.
In contrast, Wales +42.5 gives a massive buffer — and if France score 35–10, you still cash.
I think that’s the smart play here.
Summary of Picks
England to win
Ireland -17.5
Wales +42.5
Built together that’s 2.18/1 with bet365 - £20 returns just under £64.
Each leg is rooted in logic:
England control the Calcutta Cup narrative.
Ireland bounce back hard in Dublin.
Wales +42.5 hedges the France overkill while capturing the market overreaction.
Takeaway
Last weekend we hit 3/3 — that gives confidence in a structured, analytical approach.
This weekend isn’t about volume of bets — it’s about smart angles, trend grounding and implied value vs stats.
I was torn between France -20.5 and Wales starting +42.5. In the end I edged towards Wales receiving the head start, largely because of the game being played in Cardiff.
On we go. Let’s make it two winning trebles in a row.
Where To Bet
I’m using bet365 for all of my Six Nations bets — their rugby spreads and multiples are well priced. If you don’t have a bet365 account click the banner below to join.
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Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.