Manchester United vs Manchester City: New Era, Same Questions?
Manchester United host Manchester City on Saturday afternoon in what will be Michael Carrick’s first game in charge as United manager — and yes, I’m old school, so manager it is.
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Carrick arrives at Old Trafford tasked with steadying a ship that’s already taking on water. While I respect the work he did at Middlesbrough, I struggle to see this appointment as anything more than short-term. Perhaps he can rally the squad, simplify things and squeeze out a reaction over the next few weeks - but turning this United side into a long-term contender feels like a stretch.
Carrick’s Middlesbrough team were often praised for their commitment to playing out from the back. At times it worked well and earned plaudits, but towards the end of his spell it became a problem. Opponents learned the patterns, pressed aggressively and punished mistakes. Boro became increasingly easy to play against, and Carrick appeared too rigid to adapt.
That stubbornness isn’t unique. Over the past 5–8 years, we’ve seen a wave of coaches with a clear philosophy but very little in the way of a Plan B - the alternative often being “do Plan A better”. I don’t expect Carrick to suddenly change that approach at United, which raises the concern that this squad will quickly realise they’re dealing with a manager cut from a similar cloth to what came before.
That brings us to Manchester City - Carrick’s first test.
City arrive with issues of their own. They’re winless in their last three league games, injuries have hit hard at the back, and Erling Haaland is currently enduring a rare dry spell by his own elite standards. City are still creating chances - they remain among the league leaders for xG - but their usual ruthlessness has dipped.
One clear positive for Pep Guardiola is Antoine Semenyo, who has hit the ground running since his big-money move from Bournemouth. Semenyo scored on his debut against Exeter, followed that up against Newcastle midweek, and now has six goals in his last eight appearances in all competitions. He’s confident, direct and playing with freedom.
That leads me neatly into my betting angle.
If United do attempt to play out from the back under Carrick - which I fully expect - Semenyo’s pace, power and pressing ability could be crucial. United have been vulnerable when pressed high this season, and with City missing key defenders such as Rúben Dias, Joško Gvardiol and John Stones, this has the feel of a game where City may need two or even three goals to get the job done.
Semenyo’s record against Manchester United is also worth noting from his Bournemouth days:
Man Utd 4–4 Bournemouth — Semenyo scored
Man Utd 0–3 Bournemouth — Semenyo scored
Bournemouth 1–1 Man Utd — Semenyo scored
Man Utd 0–3 Bournemouth — no goal
That’s three goals in four appearances against United - solid evidence that this fixture suits him.
With Haaland not quite firing, responsibility may fall elsewhere, and Semenyo looks well placed to benefit. In what could be a surprisingly open Manchester derby, 9/4 for Semenyo to score anytime with bet365 looks generous and will be my main play.
I’ve also had smaller stakes on:
Semenyo to score first at 17/2
Semenyo to score 2+ goals at 16/1
All prices are best with bet365 at the time of writing.
This feels like a derby full of uncertainty - a new manager bounce on one side, structural flaws on the other - and those are often the games where opportunity lies. Sometimes it’s not about predicting perfection, just spotting where the value might be hiding and with a misfiring Haaland dominating the goals markets the value could lie with Semenyo.
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