Cheltenham Festival 2026 Betting Preview - Day One
Welcome to the SpankTheBookies 2026 Cheltenham Betting Preview.
I’ll be covering every race across the Festival. For each contest, I’ll highlight key trends, provide historical context, and then focus on the horses I believe are most likely to shape how the race unfolds and ultimately win. Quite often you’ll see similar trends appear across races, or notes such as “this race is usually dominated by Irish-trained runners.” I believe this type of information is important. If Ireland have won nine of the last ten renewals, there is usually a reason for that and it immediately helps narrow the race down. Similarly, if a trainer has a particularly strong record in a race, it often suggests that the contest is one they deliberately target and prepare their horses for.
You’ll notice I go into greater depth on the Graded races — particularly the Grade 1s. In my view, that’s where we as punters have the best opportunity to take money off the bookmakers. The handicaps, on the other hand, are typically where the layers hold the edge. I’ll still give my thoughts on the two or three I think have the strongest chances in those races, but my advice across all four days is to focus primarily on the top-level contests and tread carefully in the wide-open handicaps.
If you prefer forming your own views, the trends at the top of each race should help you narrow things down.
If you're short on time, feel free to scroll straight to the Day One tips at the bottom of this preview.
This is the preview for Day One.
Days Two, Three and Four will follow.
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DAY ONE
1:20 SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE - 2m 87y (Grade 1) - Old Course
Willie Mullins and Nicky Henderson have trained 8 of the last 12 winners
9 of the last 13 winners were trained in Ireland
8 of the last 12 winners won a Grade 1 on their previous start
Typically favours horses positioned prominently
BHA ratings matter here. I’ll be focusing on horses rated 150+. Nine of the last 12 winners were rated 150 or higher. In that period, the lowest-rated winner was Labaik (144) in 2017. Slade Steel won off 147 and Constitution Hill off 148. You generally need to be operating at that level.
Pace could play a significant role here. Old Park Star and Mighty Park both look likely to race prominently and if they take each other on early it could set the race up for something ridden just off the speed.
Old Park Star
It makes sense to begin with the current favourite. He failed to win any of his three bumper starts but has been excellent since switching from Paul Nicholls to Nicky Henderson over hurdles.
Wins at Kempton and Cheltenham came in modest company, but his 18-length demolition in the Grade 2 Rossington Main at Haydock was a serious performance. He’s likely to sit prominently and use his turn of foot from the final bend. If he gets a relatively easy lead then he deserves to be the favourite here.
Talk The Talk
Very impressive when winning the Tattersalls Novice Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival. He was held up behind a steady gallop and still had plenty to do turning for home, but stayed on strongly to win by a head.
That performance can be upgraded. The field was strong, and the second and third — Ballyfad and King Rasko Grey — were always well positioned near the pace. He also fell at the last in the Grade 1 Future Champions Novices’ Hurdle at Leopardstown when still travelling well. He stumbled on landing and likely would have been 3-3 in graded company had he stood up.
He should be ridden midfield and delivered late. Ideally, Mighty Park and Old Park Star take each other on for the lead and set the race up for a closer such as Talk The Talk.
Mighty Park
Impressive on the eye on his debut for Willie Mullins at Fairyhouse, winning by a wide margin with a similar distance back to the third. He only got into the race as a reserve but still went off clear favourite and demolished the field with a relentless gallop that none of his rivals could live with.
This horse clearly has huge potential. Given his inexperience, I initially thought he was more likely to run in the Turners on Day Two, which currently looks the weaker race. However, he held entries in both and connections have opted for this contest.
The first race of the Festival is almost always run at a strong pace and that could ask serious questions of his jumping given how inexperienced he is.
Sober Glory
Likely better suited to flatter, galloping tracks such as Chepstow or Newbury. Cheltenham may not play to his strengths.
El Cairos
Previously trained by Gary Moore. Like Talk The Talk, he fell before bouncing back with an impressive win. That success came in weaker company, but his ceiling remains unknown.
He should appreciate better ground and a stronger pace. However, there are jumping concerns which is backed up by his fall at the last at Leopardstown and the fact he belted the last hurdle at Thurles last time out. He’s clearly got loads of ability but his jumping has left a little to be desired when going full speed and that could be his undoing in a race as hot as this.
Mypaddydaddy
Likely to attract support. Sent off favourite for the Grade 1 Formby at Aintree but finished second to Idaho Sun, who gained first run.
With a stronger pace expected here, he may reverse that form. However, even if he does, I see him more as a place contender than a likely winner.
Selection – Talk The Talk
Danger – Old Park Star
2:00 ARKLE - 1m 7f 199y (Grade 1) - Old Course
11 of the last 12 winners were aged six or seven
8 of the last 12 were rated 157+
Favourites have a strong record
Mullins and Henderson have dominated
The first novice chase of the week and consistently one of the highest-quality races of the Festival. This sharp Old Course two-mile test rewards class and accurate jumping.
You typically need to be rated in the mid-150s at minimum. The average rating of the last six winners is 156.5 — stretching back further increases that figure.
Lulamba
I’m looking to take Lulamba on here. I don’t think his jumping is the best and on quicker ground over a slightly shorter trip I think he’ll be exposed. The first two fences come up quickly and if he misses one of those he could be on the back foot early. Looked like he was in trouble at Newbury before perhaps outstaying rivals. I suspect he’ll step up in trip next season.
The five-year-old trend is significant. Since the weight allowance was removed in 2008, no five-year-old has won. They’re 0-17 since 2006. This race is a sharp test — slightly under two miles — and that trend is difficult to ignore.
Kopek Des Bordes
Dual Grade 1 winner over hurdles, including last year’s Supreme here, and an impressive chase debut winner at Navan. He jumped soundly overall.
Navan’s left-handed, galloping, undulating nature mirrors Cheltenham reasonably well. He beat Lovely Hurling by 13 lengths; Kargese beat the same horse by 14 six weeks later — a useful line.
The concern is preparation. He’s had only one chase start and underwent minor knee surgery to remove a floating chip. The key question: can you back him off limited experience and a recent injury?
Steel Ally
Three from three over fences, including a nine-length Grade 2 win. However, he’s eight years old — an age negative here — and this may prove too sharp. Softer ground would help.
Kargese
Strong Cheltenham record. Won the County Hurdle and previously finished second in the Triumph. She travelled best for much of that Triumph before being beaten by Majborough.
She was behind Romeo Coolio last time at Leopardstown but made a significant mistake at the final fence. I thought she travelled better for most of that race.
The switch to the Old Course may suit her. She handles Cheltenham extremely well and is a serious player. The quicker ground she is likely to encounter here should also play to her strengths.
Selection – Kargese
Danger – Kopek Des Bordes
2:40 FRED WINTER FESTIVAL JUVENILE HANDICAP HURDLE - 2m 87y (Premier Handicap) - Old Course
11 of the last 12 winners had at least three runs that season
9 of the last 12 had one win or fewer that season
9 of the last 12 carried 11st 6lb or less
9 of the last 12 ran within 53 days
The last eight winners were trained in Ireland
This is typically won by a horse that has been campaigned with this race in mind and well treated by the handicapper. Often they are juveniles not quite good enough for the Triumph but ahead of their mark.
Joseph O’Brien has won the last two renewals and three of the last seven. Big prices are common — six of the last twelve winners were returned at 18/1 or bigger. Notably, Willie Mullins has never won this race.
Saratoga
Likely to be overbet and may not represent much value. He’s a horse that I am looking to take on simply because the price looks too short in what is traditionally a very volatile handicap.
Winston Junior
A horse I like but a few trends are against him. Ran a strong race on 13th December despite racing wide and pulling early. Stayed on well for second.
A truly run race would suit and if he settles better, he should be finishing strongly. The main concern is the UK-trained trend, which is firmly against him.
Hardy Stuff
If you can forgive his run here on Trials Day, when he started favourite, then Hardy Stuff may be overpriced. He went off at 4/1 that day but pulled far too hard and never really settled into the race.
He runs here off a mark of 128 and fits many of the key trends outlined above. Gordon Elliott also has an excellent record in this race, which adds further interest.
Glen To Glen
Joseph O’Brien has won the last two renewals of this race and this appears to be his main contender to make it three in a row. He comes here after a 93-day break, which is one small trend negative, but the trainer’s excellent record in the race still makes him a runner of significant interest.
Selection – Hardy Stuff
Danger – Glen To Glen
3:20 ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE - 3m 1f (Premier Handicap) - Old Course
12 of the last 18 winners were rated between 142–148
11 of the last 12 winners were aged 7, 8 or 9
11 of the last 12 had previous Cheltenham experience
10 of the last 12 had at least three runs that season
The first handicap chase of the week is usually run at a strong gallop, so stamina is essential.
Unlike the Fred Winter, Irish-trained runners have a very poor record here. Only two Irish-trained winners since 1967 and they are currently on a 51-run losing streak. In this race, the angle is often to oppose those travelling from Ireland.
It is not unusual for horses to win this back-to-back. Un Temps Pour Tout did so in 2016 and 2017, and Corach Rambler in 2022 and 2023.
Iroko
Will carry top weight in this but I think he’s well deserving of it. He should sit close to the pace, which is often important in races like this around Cheltenham, before trying to outstay rivals up the hill.
He won the Martin Pipe Hurdle at the Festival in 2023 and clearly handles the track well.
Quebecois
Another who will likely sit close to the pace. He hasn’t won at Cheltenham in three attempts but has finished second and third here on his two runs at the track this season.
Leave Of Absence
Another who should not be too far from the lead in the early stages, which reduces the chance of any hard-luck stories in running.
He has won one of his two visits to Cheltenham and Anthony Honeyball is a trainer whose runners I always respect in races like this.
Selection – Iroko
Danger – Leave Of Absence
4:00 CHAMPION HURDLE - 2m 87y (Grade 1) - Old Course
31 of the last 36 winners won last time out
10 of the last 12 were aged six or seven
Five-year-olds are 2-114 in the past 39 years
6 of the last 19 were owned by JP McManus
This is not a vintage renewal in my opinion. In previous years we’ve been able to side confidently with a standout. This year, the race feels more open.
My approach here has been one of elimination. Championship races at the Festival are usually run at an unrelenting gallop. You need a horse that travels strongly, jumps accurately and unquestionably stays the trip. Any stamina doubt is a red flag. Any significant dip in form is another.
Between Willie Mullins and Nicky Henderson, 11 of the last 16 renewals have been won by one of their runners. That dominance still matters.
The New Lion
A superb novice last season and one of the most fluent jumpers in training at his best. He has not been quite as slick at his hurdles this year, but the overall profile still stands up strongly in the context of this race.
He has had six hurdle starts, winning five, including two at Cheltenham. He fell on seasonal reappearance in the Fighting Fifth when still travelling well. He had begun to lug slightly right and found himself making the running earlier than ideal after Constitution Hill fell. That scenario did not suit.
He then won the International Hurdle. The race was slowly run and the winning margin of 1¼ lengths does not fully reflect his superiority. Once the pace lifted, he asserted late and was pulling clear in the final 100 yards.
He has proven stamina, having won the Turners’ Novices’ Hurdle at this Festival last year — a race that has historically produced Champion Hurdle winners.
In a race lacking a dominant force, The New Lion looks the most solid option if producing his best form.
Brighterdaysahead
Now 0-2 at Cheltenham. She was well beaten in this race last year and her overall record at the track is a concern.
She defeated Lossiemouth in the Irish Champion Hurdle on heavy ground. Softer conditions clearly play to her strengths. On better ground at Cheltenham, that advantage may be reduced.
Gordon Elliott is 0-8 in this race, which is another factor to consider.
Lossiemouth
Likely to reverse form with Brighterdaysahead on better ground. Leopardstown has not brought out her best — three of her four career defeats have come there.
By contrast, she is unbeaten at Cheltenham. She runs here instead of the Mares Hurdle and looks the main danger to The New Lion.
Golden Ace
Won this last year in a race where several contenders underperformed. Also won the Fighting Fifth in the race where both Constitution Hill and The New Lion fell.
If The New Lion produces his best, I would expect him to confirm superiority.
Tutti Quanti
Impressive on heavy ground at Newbury. May be better suited to softer conditions and flatter tracks.
Poniros and Alexei do not look good enough at this level. Anzadam is interesting as a lightly raced six-year-old who could run into a place.
Workahead looks more like a handicap performer.
Selection – The New Lion
Danger – Lossiemouth
4:40 FESTIVAL PLATE HANDICAP CHASE - 2m 4f 4y (Premier Handicap) - Old Course
All of the last seven winners had won at Cheltenham earlier in the season
All of the last 12 winners were rated between 139–149
9 of the last 10 had previously contested a graded race
19 of the last 25 were nine or younger
7 of the last 10 won on their most recent start
Only 2 of the last 21 had run in 12+ chases
The Plate and Mares’ Hurdle have switched places in the schedule. The Plate is now run on Day One on the Old Course.
Recent history suggests we should be focusing on British-trained runners with previous handicap form at Cheltenham, as well as some well-treated runners travelling over from Ireland.
Historically this race has favoured horses racing prominently turning for home, and with the switch to the Old Course that angle could be even more important.
Madara
An eye-catcher on both of his chase starts this season. The jockey was called into the stewards’ room after Madara’s seasonal reappearance at Wetherby — his first run after a year off the track — and it was explained that the horse was being given a confidence-building ride after such a long absence.
He then went to Kempton next time and was outpaced three out before staying on strongly to grab third.
He runs here off the same mark of 140 — the same rating he had when finishing second to Gemirande in the December Gold Cup at Cheltenham in 2024.
He fits the rating band, has proven course form and previously contested graded races. One concern is that he tends to be held up and may need some luck in running, but if the gaps appear at the right time he could be finishing strongly.
Mclaurey
Looks very well handicapped off a mark of 133. His last two runs came over two miles and he hasn’t shown much, but this step up to 2m4f should suit him much better.
He has had four quiet rides over fences and gets into this race off what could prove to be a lenient mark.
Jagwar won this race last year for JP McManus and was extremely well handicapped at the time. Mclaurey runs in the same colours and could be following a similar path.
Selection – Madara
Danger – Mclaurey
5:20 NATIONAL HUNT CHASE - 3m 5f 201y (Handicap) - Old Course
8 of the last 12 winners were trained in Ireland
Rebecca Curtis has won this twice in the last 14 years
10 of the last 12 winners had three or more runs that season
Use historical trends with caution here. From 2025 onwards this is a novice handicap chase, having previously been a graded novice event for amateur riders. Field sizes increased significantly following the change.
Backmeorsackme
Second to Three Card Brag at Cheltenham in October. That run makes him an obvious contender as he briefly lost his position mid-race before staying on strongly up the hill to finish runner-up.
He looks Ireland’s best chance of extending their strong record in this contest.
Newton Tornado
Trainer Rebecca Curtis won this race last year and has an excellent record here. Newton Tornado looks a thorough stayer and the nature of this race should suit him well.
He ticks many of the key boxes.
Wade Out
Winner of a Listed race here in November and I made a note at the time that he looked slightly sticky at a few of his fences.
A step up in trip could help him settle into a steadier rhythm over his obstacles. His running style should also suit Sean Bowen’s typically positive riding approach.
He wears first-time cheekpieces and trainer Olly Murphy has a solid record with that headgear (4-21, 19%). He is also the only previous course winner in the field.
Grand Geste
Failed to win any of his first nine starts under rules but has looked a completely different horse since switching to fences.
He has won two of his five chase starts and his jumping has generally been sound, aside from one poor effort when the stable was badly out of form.
He won the Grand National Trial at Haydock on his latest start and now drops back into novice company here.
Selection – Newton Tornado
Danger – Wade Out
DAY ONE TIPS
Win Trixie
Talk The Talk (1:20 Cheltenham) - 9/2
Kargese (2:00 Cheltenham) - 5/1
The New Lion (4:00) Cheltenham) - 5/2
Each-Way Trixie
Iroko (3:20 Cheltenham) - 6/1 - 6 places
Madara (4:40 Cheltenham) - 4/1 - 5 places
Newton Tornado (5:20 Cheltenham) - 11/2 - 5 places