Cheltenham Festival 2026 Betting Preview - Day Four
It’s Gold Cup Day! Hopefully up to this point my preview has been enjoyable, informative and has helped you back a few winners. The final day at the Festival has produced some massive priced winners in the last few years. Notably, 100/1 shot Poniros won the Triumph Hurdle last year, whilst Faivoir won the County Hurdle at 33/1 in 2023 and, in the same year, Premier Magic won the Hunters’ Chase at 66/1. We’ve already seen over the first three days that it has paid to be ridden very close to the pace and anything that is out the back after a furlong or two is at a disadvantage. For that reason I’m going to back only horses who are likely to be ridden in midfield at worst.
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Short on time? Scroll to the bottom of this page to see our recommended bets for Day Four.
TRIUMPH HURDLE - 2m 179y (Grade 1) - New Course
8 of the past 11 winners started their careers in France
5 of the past 6 winners were trained by Willie Mullins
10 of the past 13 winners were trained in Ireland
9 of the past 17 winners were unbeaten
2 of the past 6 winners were fillies
The trends point towards another Irish winner in this race. Ideally we are looking for a French-bred horse who has since joined Willie Mullins. The man is a genius at sourcing the right sort of horses for races like this. The fillies get a 7lb sex allowance which is becoming significant, particularly in Grade 1 contests. Poniros won this at 100/1 last year, giving Willie Mullins his fourth win on the bounce in this race. Before that massive upset, those towards the head of the betting had a good record with 7 of the previous 9 winners all being 9/1 or shorter. I think this race will be won by one of the first four in the betting this year.
Proactif
Was quickly installed as JP McManus’ No.1 hope for this contest after Narciso Has was ruled out of the Festival, but I’m going to be looking to take this horse on. It’s a brave move considering it’s very likely Willie Mullins’ first string in this race, but I just think there are a few interesting runners in behind him in the betting. None more so than stablemate Selma De Vary, a filly who Proactif will have to give 7lb to.
Selma De Vary
Chased home Narciso Has on debut for Willie Mullins at the Dublin Racing Festival. That was a performance that can be upgraded due to the fact that Narciso Has made all, this horse was midfield for most of the race and she didn’t jump particularly well — understandable considering it was her first time over these sorts of hurdles. Selma De Vary was coming back from a three-month break with perhaps an education ride in mind rather than really being pushed to win, whilst Narciso Has was a race-fit horse with experience. With any improvement at all you would surely have to expect her to run a big race here. She receives a handy 7lb sex allowance from the boys.
Maestro Conti
2–2 over hurdles since joining Dan Skelton. Won at Kempton on debut before winning a trial for this race at Cheltenham at the end of January. One Horse Town went a decent clip on the front that day, kicking for home a few furlongs out. Maestro Conti was a little keen through the early part of the race and looked to be in a bit of danger a furlong or two from the winning line, but he jumped the last hurdle cleanly and was well on top passing the line — suggesting that an even stronger run race would suit. This would allow him to settle a little better and he clearly stays well, so it would turn it into more of a stamina test. Dan Skelton said Maestro Conti, along with Panic Attack in the Mares’ Chase, is one of his best chances at this year’s Festival.
Minella Study
Perhaps gets bogged down in soft conditions, so the quicker the ground the better for this horse. 3 from 3 over hurdles and is a massive frame of a horse with a really big stride. Has won over hurdles at Cheltenham already, something only a few of these can claim (Maestro Conti and One Horse Town also), and just looks to tick a lot of boxes. A horse I really like. He’s a front runner and I can see him going well for a long way but, in the end, just setting it up for one of the closers.
Selection - Selma De Vary
Danger - Minella Study
COUNTY HURDLE - 2m 179y (Premier Handicap) - New Course
8 of the past 16 and 5 of the past 10 winners were trained by Willie Mullins
4 of the last 10 winners were trained by Dan Skelton
20 of the past 27 winners were aged 5 or 6
Karbau
Paul Townend chooses to ride Karbau instead of Murcia and Absurde and that must be respected. Was a smart novice hurdler last season having been placed in a Grade 1. Started a big price in last year’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and was comfortably beaten, finishing 10th of 11. Races from a hold-up position. I’m happy to take this one on.
Murcia
French-bred horse out of the Willie Mullins stable. Has form on varying types of ground including very soft in France, soft in Ireland and good to soft in the UK. Raced very wide on her last start at the DRF and finished 4th of 19. Willie Mullins has said previously that he thinks this mare is ground dependent, preferring better ground, which is quite surprising considering she has form on various types of ground. However, that would explain the wide trip last time out at the DRF and she did win at Aintree on good to soft. Likes to race prominently. I prefer her over Karbau.
Sinnatra
Dan Skelton has a good record in this race and this horse ticks a lot of boxes. Likes to race close to the lead, gets a touch further than this and also has form on good ground. Will be popular.
Sixandahalf
If you’re looking for one at a bigger price then this would be my each-way selection. Was 2nd in the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle last year and ran a good race when 2nd to Wodhooh over Christmas. Has been freshened up since that race and not only have this trainer and jockey combination already had a winner at the Festival, but the trainer’s horses have been running very well on the whole at this year’s Festival. Raced prominently at last year’s Festival — hopefully adopts similar tactics today.
Selection - Murcia
Danger - Sixandahalf (each-way)
MARES’ CHASE - 2m 4f 127y (Grade 2) - New Course
There’s only been 5 renewals of this and all 5 have gone to Ireland
All 5 winners won last time out
All 5 winners had run 3 times that season
4 of the 5 winners had run at the Cheltenham Festival previously
UK runners are 0-16
Mares aged 9+ are 0-12
Dinoblue
Looking to go back-to-back in this, having won it last year by 8 lengths. Earlier in the week when she was around 11/8 in the betting I thought she was plenty short enough in a race that looks deeper than last year. She’s drifted out to about 2/1 at the time of writing and that makes more appeal. Likes to make all and that’s been an advantage all Festival. There’s a good chance she’s taken on up front by Diva Luna and that could maybe set it up for a horse ridden just behind the pace.
Panic Attack
Dan Skelton says this horse is one of his best chances at the Festival. Receives 5lb from Spindleberry and 3lb from Dinoblue. Dan Skelton’s horses have been running really well in the handicaps but have been coming up short in the top graded races. I think she’ll find one too good here. Will likely be ridden from midfield or a hold-up position.
Spindleberry
Connections for a moment thought about running her in the Gold Cup. Has a Grade 1 penalty so has to give Dinoblue 2lb and Panic Attack 5lb — that could be her undoing. Likely to be ridden just one horse back from Dinoblue and Diva Luna and would probably have to have everything fall right to win. Having her first run at Cheltenham.
Selection - Dinoblue
Danger - Panic Attack
ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES’ HURDLE - 2m 7f 213y (Grade 1) - New Course
10 of the past 14 winners had won an Irish point-to-point
8 double priced winners in the last 10 years
5 of the past 7 winners had run 3 times or less over hurdles
Doctor Steinberg
Lines up here instead of the Turners. There was talk of him taking up that entry in the Turners due to being keen in the early part of his race at Leopardstown in the DRF last time out, that was over 2m6f. He pulled for his head quite badly in that race and there would have been many people — myself included — thinking he was going to pay for this in the closing stages. However, he quickened clear from his rivals two or three furlongs from home and kept up the gallop to win by 8 lengths. It was a serious performance and if he can settle even slightly better in this then he’s surely going to take another step forward. He has plenty of stamina in his pedigree so the slight step up in trip could eke out further improvement. Likes to race right up with the pace.
Thedeviluno
Maybe doesn’t have the turn of foot that Doctor Steinberg possesses, as proved when being defeated by that horse at Navan in a small field over 2m4f. Was then stepped up in trip at Doncaster and improved for it as he galloped powerfully all the way to the line to win by 5 lengths. If it turns into a real slog, which is perhaps unlikely with the forecast ground, this horse will be hitting the line hard. But if they go a moderate gallop through the first half of the race it’s very likely Doctor Steinberg will show him a clean set of heels. Likes to come from off the pace and that hasn’t been the optimal racing style in the first three days.
Spinningayarn
Point and bumper winner. 2–3 since switching to hurdles, not running beyond 2m4f as of yet. Steps up in trip here and that could bring out further improvement based on pedigree. The trainer does excellently with staying horses and I think he’s very interesting. Another who likes to race up with the pace — Jack Kennedy booked for the ride.
Fruit De Mer
De Bromhead had a winner on Day 3 and if you’re looking for one at a big price, take a punt on this one. Won a 3m point on deep ground so stamina will not be an issue. Recently ran quite well in a 2m4f Grade 1 at Naas, staying on strongly into 3rd having pulled hard. There’s a chance they go a good gallop here and Fruit De Mer might be able to settle better — hopefully just behind the leaders. Currently about 40/1 and has a decent chance of running into a place.
Selection - Doctor Steinberg
Danger - Spinningayarn
GOLD CUP - 3m 2f 70y (Grade 1) - New Course
25 of the past 26 winners were aged 7–9
14 of the last 21 winners had not won beyond 3m½f
5 of the last 7 winners were French bred
A fascinating race this year in my opinion. Gallopin Des Champs was looking to regain his title, something that only one horse has done in the over 100 years of this race. However, he has sadly had to miss this year’s Festival after suffering a setback. We have horses who look to have class in abundance but there are doubts over whether they’ll stay, and others who are perhaps a little more workmanlike but are absolutely certain to stay the trip, even if it’s a furious gallop.
Haiti Couleurs
Wants to be bang on the pace otherwise you risk him sulking like he did at Haydock when pulled up. Ground versatile but his chance would improve the softer the ground is. Does he have enough class to win if the ground has any good in it? Probably not, but the rain came on Thursday and this horse is as tough as old boots. If they go a good gallop and a few horses struggle with the trip this horse will relish it. Rated 166 but is probably better on softer ground.
Jango Baie
Last year’s Arkle winner. Unproven over this trip but looks to have class in abundance. 2–2 at Cheltenham, including a win in last year’s Arkle. 4th behind The Jukebox Man in the King George. Kempton is a real speed track and The Jukebox Man got the run of the race on the front end. It turned into a bit of a sprint finish and, taking into account that he was probably inconvenienced by the course and the way the race panned out, he was still a staying-on 4th beaten only half a length. The Gold Cup looks like it could be right up his street. Back at Cheltenham where he has an unbeaten record, where the emphasis is less on speed, I think there’s a chance he turns the form around with The Jukebox Man. I understand people will say he’s unproven over the trip — but so are many of these. The course form just sways it for me. Rated 167.
The Jukebox Man
4–4 over fences. No weakness has been shown. Jumps well, travels strongly and knuckles down when faced with a battle. Winner of the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day. I have doubts that Kempton form transfers to Cheltenham as the profile of the tracks couldn’t be any more different — but it’s too early to say for certain that he doesn’t handle Cheltenham as he finished 2nd at the Festival last year in the Albert Bartlett Hurdle. Ben Pauling is very sweet on this horse’s chances. He said recently that he thinks 3m2f will be right up his street and even thinks the stiffer trip will bring out further improvement. Rated 168.
Inothewayurthinkin
Hasn’t been the same horse since winning this race last year. He would need to grow another leg to win this for the second year in a row. Rated 170 but hasn’t been running anywhere near that mark lately.
Gaelic Warrior
Beat Fact To File on his first run of the season over 2m4f. Then stepped up in trip and Fact To File reversed the form. He pulls quite hard and there’s no way he stays if he does pull like he usually does — but there’s a chance connections just stick him out in front and try to let the horse’s class get him through. Gaelic Warrior is the joint top-rated horse in the field off a mark of 170.
Grey Dawning
Never been out of the first three home at Cheltenham. Beaten by Spillane’s Tower on his last start when a bad mistake at two out cost him any chance. There’s a suspicion this sort of trip could stretch him, particularly if they go a very strong gallop. Likely to travel well until the final bend and then probably gets outstayed.
Envoi Allen
I wanted to mention this horse because I think it’s an interesting runner who could sneak into a place at really big odds. They usually go a very strong end-to-end gallop in the Gold Cup and if they go quicker than usual then I expect Envoi Allen to be switched off right at the back of the field and could be running on past beaten horses into a place. Will he win? Very likely no. But he has a touch of class, he’s a three-time winner at Cheltenham and he’ll be ridden to be finishing strongly.
Selection - Jango Baie
Danger - Haiti Couleurs
HUNTERS’ CHASE - 3m 2f 70y (Class 2) - New Course
11 of the previous 16 winners had a BHA rating of 134+
15 of the past 18 winners had run in February
14 of the past 19 winners had yet to win over this distance
Panda Boy
Has a touch of class about him having gone off at only 11/1 for the Grand National two years ago. Kind of fell out of love with the game a bit after that, but has been rejuvenated recently and looks to have found his enthusiasm again. Won two hunter chases recently and races right up with the pace. I want to have this horse on my side.
Con’s Roc
Started favourite in his latest hunter chase behind It’s On The Line and Willitgoahead but could only manage a running-on 3rd. 2–4 in points and this greater emphasis on stamina could prove to be right up his street. Wears first-time cheekpieces and will likely sit just behind the leaders.
Selection - Panda Boy
Danger - Con’s Roc
MARTIN PIPE CONDITIONAL JOCKEYS’ HANDICAP HURDLE - 2m 4f 56y (Handicap) - New Course
15 of the last 17 winners had run 8 times or less over hurdles
8 of the last 12 winners were novices
8 of the last 12 winners were Irish trained novices
Horses aged 8yo+ are 0-77
All of the last 17 winners carried 11st 1lb or more
Only 1 winning favourite in the last 17
Roc Dino
Five race maiden, twice in Ireland since arriving from France. Runner up to Mighty Park and El Cairos (both horses ran in the Supreme Novices’ on Tuesday) and now steps up in trip on handicap debut. Could be very well treated off his mark. Has raced prominently in his two starts in Ireland so far.
Open Secret
Gordon Elliott has won the last two renewals of this race and this horse looks to have a decent chance at big odds. Acts on any ground and has run well in a Grade 2 and Grade 3 at Thurles on his most recent start. That Thurles race threw up the winner of this race back in 2018 and 2017 — both for Gordon Elliott.
Selection - Roc Dino
Danger - Open Secret (each-way)
RECOMMENDED MULTIPLES FOR DAY FOUR
Each-Way Lucky 63
Selma De Vary (1:20) - 7/2 - 4 places
Murcia (2:00) - 15/2 - 6 places
Doctor Steinberg (3:20) - 10/3 - 4 places
Jango Baie (4:00) - 5/1 - 3 places
Panda Boy (4:40) - 6/1 - 4 places
Roc Dino (5:20) - 7/1 - 5 places
18+
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